2026 Durham Region Housing Forecast

Is the Market Finally Turning a Corner?

After several difficult years for buyers and sellers alike, the Durham Region housing market may finally be entering a more balanced phase in 2026.

With interest rates appearing to stabilize, affordability improving in some areas, and more buyers slowly returning to the market, many people are asking the same question:

Is now finally the time to make a move?

While no one can predict the market with certainty, several trends are already beginning to shape real estate across Pickering, Ajax, Whitby, Oshawa, and the surrounding Durham Region communities.

Buyer Confidence Is Slowly Returning

For the first time in a while, many buyers are starting to feel that the worst of the uncertainty may be behind us.

Home prices remain below peak levels in many areas, and buyers are adjusting to today’s mortgage rates after years of rapid changes.

We’re beginning to see:

• more first-time buyers exploring the market
• families considering move-up purchases again
• increased activity at open houses
• buyers realizing they may not want to wait any longer

Many people who delayed their plans over the past two or three years are starting to re-enter the market.

Durham Region Still Offers Strong Value

Compared to many parts of the GTA, Durham Region continues to offer buyers more space and better overall value.

That continues to attract:

• young families
• Toronto buyers moving east
• remote and hybrid workers
• retirees downsizing
• long-term investors

Communities throughout Durham remain appealing because buyers can often get larger homes, more property, and a better lifestyle compared to higher-priced areas closer to downtown Toronto.

Inventory Could Become a Bigger Story

One factor we’ll be watching closely in 2026 is inventory.

Many homeowners are still hesitant to sell because:

• they currently have very low mortgage rates
• replacement homes remain expensive
• economic uncertainty still exists

If buyer demand increases faster than new listings, we could see tighter market conditions later this year.

That may lead to:

• increased competition on well-priced homes
• fewer days on market
• stronger pricing in certain neighborhoods
• occasional multiple-offer situations returning

Condo Market Recovery May Take Time

The condo market across the GTA has faced challenges over the last few years, especially due to higher borrowing costs and investor hesitation.

That said, lower condo prices may create opportunities for:

• first-time buyers
• downsizers
• long-term investors

We expect condo recovery to happen gradually rather than overnight.

Sellers Still Need To Price Properly

Even as the market improves, today’s buyers remain cautious and well-informed.

Homes that are:

• overpriced
• poorly presented
• outdated
• lacking strong marketing

may continue to sit on the market longer than expected.

The reality is that pricing strategy, preparation, staging, photography, and marketing matter more than ever.

Interest Rates Remain the Wild Card

Mortgage rates will continue to play a major role in the housing market throughout 2026.

If inflation stays under control and rates remain stable — or decline modestly — buyer confidence could continue improving.

However, economic uncertainty and global events can still affect consumer confidence and borrowing costs very quickly.

Our Outlook for 2026

Overall, we believe the Durham Region market in 2026 may look healthier and more balanced than the extreme conditions we experienced during both the pandemic boom and the sharp correction that followed.

Rather than dramatic price spikes, we may see:

• steadier conditions
• moderate price movement
• improving activity
• continued demand for well-located homes

For buyers, this could present opportunities before competition fully returns.

For sellers, realistic expectations and strong marketing will remain critical.

As always, real estate is highly local, and conditions can vary significantly from one neighborhood to another.

If you’re thinking about buying, selling, or simply want to understand what’s happening in your area, we’re always happy to help.

Bonnie & Paul Jones
Your Friends in Real Estate